In-stat research has released a report on the future of UMPCs and it looks really bright. They predict that 7.8 million UMPCs could ship in the next 5 years. Key factors driving the sales of UMPCs are their functionality bridging the gap between usage limitations of smart phones and PDAs and portability limitations of laptop computers.

The research also states quite an obvious - that there’s no size fits all solution. So even though the first generation UMPC devices will not have many unique features and will try to create a new usage model at a price points affordable for early adopters, we can expect a lot of experimentation and innovation later as processing, storage and power saving/storing technologies catch up.

Indeed we can already see these trends in development - the first generation of UMPC devices are pretty similar to each other with vendors adding minor features like web camera or digital television to the basic reference design. However, as recent patent filings from Intel and Apple show, companies are experimenting with various user interface and usability features and other interesting innovations should follow as the UMPC market develops.

The In-Stat also argues that requirements of UMPCs will drive new generation of ultra low power x86 processors and create more competition in the field. Already Via low power processor is a viable alternative to Intel and AMD is considering it’s entrance here too. Intel also has a clear roadmap for it’s low power Core architecture and as the prices come down for these chips we can expect Core Solo and Core Duo ULV processors in UMPC devices by the end of the year, with Meroms following in 2007. These developments should significantly boost the processing capabilities of UMPC devices while reducinng their power consumption as well.

One big loser in this trend is Transmeta, who was the first to develop low power chips that would have been a great option for many UMPC devices. Unfortunately Transmeta was too early to the game and closed down it’s processor manufacturing a little over a year ago. As Jim McGregor, Principal Analyst with In-Stat says:

“It’s ironic that the UMPC is now taking center stage close to a year and a half after Transmeta, a company focused on delivering processors for this very segment, finally had to call it quits as a processor vendor because of lack of market growth.”

All in all the future of UMPCs looks interesting and early skepticism of some analysts about first generation UMPCs seems premature.

Via Vnunet